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These trends are likely to continue, as climate change projections suggest global decreases in relative humidity and increases in temperature that may increase future fire risk where fuels remain abundant.Ībatzoglou, J. Trends in VPD 95 were predominantly associated with increasing temperature.
STATS MODELING THE WORLD 2ND EDITION PDF DRIVER
Decreasing relative humidity was a driver of over three-quarters of significant increases in FWI 95 and ISI 95, while increasing temperature was a driver for 40% of significant trends. Significant increases occurred over a quarter to almost half of the global burnable land mass. Trends in annual extreme (95th percentile) values of the fire weather index (FWI 95), initial spread index (ISI 95) and vapour pressure deficit (VPD 95) varied regionally, with global increases in mean values of 14, 12 and 12%, respectively.
STATS MODELING THE WORLD 2ND EDITION PDF DRIVERS
Here, we analyse trends in observed global extreme fire weather and their meteorological drivers from 1979 to 2020 using the ERA5 reanalysis. Recent increases in regional wildfire activity have been linked to climate change.